The Japanese yen has recently been in strong demand as a “safe haven” for investors on the topic of the risk off sentiments associated with the trade war between the US and China.
On the daily chart of the USDJPY currency pair, we see a clear downward long-term channel. Continue reading
Currency pair USDJPY once again came close to the important resistance.
This is the long-term mirror level at 111.500. Continue reading
“Risk Off” sentiments on forex ends? The USDJPY currency pair is forming the second consecutive inside bar.
Pay attention, on the daily chart USDJPY three consecutive candles can not close below the mirror support (green rectangle). Continue reading
A sharp fall in the pair USDJPY (the growth of the Japanese yen) is associated with a decrease in risk appetite in the foreign exchange market.
Market risk off sentiment led to demand for protective assets, including US government bonds and the Japanese yen.
The pair USDJPY broke the lower border of the rising channel and fell below the moving average for 100 hours and 100 candles for H4. Today’s fall of the pair USDJPY the strongest daily decline in more than a year. This may be the first signal to a possible reversal of the yen’s decline trend.
The yield of 10-year US government bonds fell sharply and is testing key support near the round value of 3.00%.
The Japanese yen (blue on the chart above) followed the yield of the bonds. We already noted in the article “Analysis of the Japanese yen (USDJPY) – a return to the historical correlation on the forex” that after the normalization of the situation on the US stock market, the Japanese yen returned to a historical correlation with the bond yield.
Such an abrupt departure from risks can be connected with profit taking by investors before today’s publication of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting. In the event that the protocols are sufficiently “hawkish”, it is able to expand the yield of bonds upward and the Japanese yen will also continue to fall on the forex market.
But, it often happens that such a sharp withdrawal of investors into defensive assets is a signal for upcoming events that carry high risks – volatility in the stock market, military conflicts, political risks, etc. The yield of government bonds is often the leading indicator of uncertainty in the world. What can be – I do not yet understand. Italy, North Korea, Iran, Muller’s investigation in the US ???? Do you remember all this talk about bonds yield curve flattering in the US and the impending financial crisis? Who knows.
We must closely monitor the news background and be prepared for high volatility in the foreign exchange market. If the avoidance of risks in the currency market continues, this can lead to gold growth. At the moment, it balances on the verge of the reversal zone after several days of consolidation near the lower boundary of the long-term rising channel.
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Against the backdrop of growth in the US government bonds yield and the strengthening of the US dollar yesterday, the USDJPY pair broke through the key resistance at the round level of 110,000.
The pair USDJPY is in a steady growing trend and is trading in an upwardly growing channel. Continue reading
The Bank of Japan will apply a negative interest rate of minus 0.1 percent to the Policy-Rate.
Statement on Monetary Policy: Continue reading
We will begin the analysis with the US dollar (USDX). The short-term situation at the end of Friday, I analyzed in the article Hour of truth for the dollar, let’s look at the long-term picture.
Let me remind you that the dollar in the US in its decline for more than a year could not gain a foothold below the principal long-term mirror area. Continue reading
The short-term policy interest rate: The Bank will apply a negative interest rate of minus 0.1 percent to the Policy-Rate.
Statement on Monetary Policy Continue reading
Last month of winter USDJPY currency pair finished exactly in the middle of the range between two long-term levels.
This indicates the current uncertainty of traders in the Japanese yen. Continue reading
Depending on how the traders behave near these key zones, the picture will be clear for the next few days, especially for the US dollar.
The US dollar index tested the lower limit of the resistance zone (red rectangle) from which the last move down occurred. Continue reading
