After a series of central bank meetings, the foreign exchange market entered a phase of strong consolidation.
The week before last week was marked by the most significant weekly decline in the US dollar index (USDX) for the entire last period of its growth. And this is more than one year.
During the entire last year, investors and speculators bought the US dollar at all its falls and were in profit. Continue reading
The upward trend of the US dollar in recent days has slowed down in its development. Is it just a pause in the foreign exchange market or signs of an approaching reversal?
Over the past few days, the US dollar (USDX) has been consolidating around the level formed by the previous high on the value of 96.836. Continue reading
Trade wars and an endless stream of US sanctions force even America’s close allies to work out measures to protect their own financial systems and business.
The European Commission plans in the near future to submit its proposals for replacing the dollar in European financial transactions. Continue reading
On August 8, 2018, the Bloomberg news agency published a very entertaining material entitled “JPMorgan Says Trump May Sell Dollars as Weapon in U.S. Trade War“. This article (oddly enough) came out on the eve of the fact that the dollar (USDX index) broke through the mirror resistance at 95.00 and left the medium-term consolidation zone. Continue reading
As a result of the rapid growth of the US dollar, the main currency pairs on forex reached key levels.
Exit from the technical figure of the triangle, the breakthrough of the mirror level of 90.850 and the exit from the long-term descending channel led to the rally on the US dollar (USDX).
The upward movement stopped by testing the next strong mirror resistance level at 92.400.
At the same time, the euro reached the level of 1.20, the British pound – 1.36, the Australian dollar fell to the key level of 0.75, the Canadian dollar reached 1.29, and the Japanese yen closely approached the level of 110.00.
The euro after a long consolidation at the perennial highs came down from the long-term rising channel. This was also due to the breakout of the triangle down and the breakdown of key support 1,21550.
Currently, this level is a mirror resistance and with a high probability the euro can test it before continuing its decline.
The fall of the British pound was due to poor economic data and, as a consequence, a decrease in the probability of an increase in the interest rate by the Bank of England. The pound left the growing channel for the first time in a long time and stopped only at a strong mirror support level of about 1.36.
Today, the data on the index of business activity in the construction sector in the UK is expected, but they are unlikely to help reverse the trend to reduce the pound due to extremely bad weather in the reporting period.
The Fed’s decision on the interest rate is expected this evening. Since this meeting will not be accompanied by a press conference, experts do not pawn the possibility of raising rates on it. The main attention will be paid to the accompanying statement to the decision. In the case of a more rigid position of the regulator, one can expect a continuation of the trend towards strengthening the US dollar.
Let me remind you that the latest data on inflation in the US, although it showed a slight slowdown in inflation over the past month, annual inflation reached target 2.0%. This gives all grounds for raising the rate at the next meeting.
Correction on the dollar, which we are observing today, is quite possibly connected with the fixing by the bulls on the dollar of profit in the lead-up to the Fed meeting to reduce risks.
Last week was remarkable by the significant strengthening of the US dollar practically across the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market.
The dollar grew along with the yield of US government bonds. Continue reading
The quickly escalating trade battle between the United States and China will likely raise both costs for businesses and prices for consumers on both sides of the Pacific.
However, based on the current nature of the trade war and trade flows between both parties, Chinese companies will likely be hurt more than those in the U.S. for the moment. Continue reading
Sentiments in the foreign exchange market are one of the main drivers that determine and maintain long-term trends on Forex.
In connection with this, today’s publication of the Bloomberg Agency is very noteworthy. Continue reading
We will begin the analysis with the US dollar (USDX). The short-term situation at the end of Friday, I analyzed in the article Hour of truth for the dollar, let’s look at the long-term picture.
Let me remind you that the dollar in the US in its decline for more than a year could not gain a foothold below the principal long-term mirror area. Continue reading
After the publication of the data on employment in the US, traders in the foreign exchange market were confused.
On the one hand, the increase in jobs (313,000) is the best data since July 2016, on the other hand, a 0.1% increase in wages. Continue reading
Yesterday, on the last day of the calendar winter, the US dollar (USDX) overcame the key resistance at a value of 90,400.
Thus, from today it can be said that the US dollar is in an upward trend. Continue reading
Depending on how the traders behave near these key zones, the picture will be clear for the next few days, especially for the US dollar.
The US dollar index tested the lower limit of the resistance zone (red rectangle) from which the last move down occurred. Continue reading
In the Asian session, avoiding risks led to a decline in the futures of the S & P500 and the Nikkei index. As a result, the Japanese yen rose to its maximum, and the euro, the British pound and the Australian dollar rose.
All this caused the US dollar to fall to the minimum values for the last week. Continue reading